Saying Goodbye to PDT Rule & Earnings Season
Iran ceasefire talks continue, but Q1 performance earnings season kicks off a strong start to April
Big banks have opened up earnings season for Q1 performance. JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs beating expectations driven by robust investment banking and trading. Big banks have seen a modest move higher this week and the broader market has been reacting positively since March lows. GE Aerospace, Tesla, United Health Group, Lam Research, American Express, and Intel all set to report next week.
Traders with margin accounts over $2,000 will now have intraday buying power set by brokers based on market exposure rather than a rigid 4-trade-per-5-days. This moves opens the door for increased retail trading activity. Major retail-favorite brokers like Robinhood and Webull were up double digits on the move.
Trump shared on Truth Social this morning, 4/17 that the Strait has reopened, capping off one of the best week in years. SPY is up over 6% in the first half of April, and now, 9% for the year. Investors have largely brushed off geopolitical risks after repeated claims of ceasefire. The below chart shows historically how equity first-half returns in April tend to perform rest of year.
Other News & What's Ahead
- President Trump Fed Chair nominee will begin Senate Confirmation Hearing next week as part of the succession of current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who will be completing his term in May. This will be a key event as the nomination of Kevin Warsh will signal the end of bipartisan, independent monetary policy. This comes after repeated backlash by President Trump on Fed Powell's monetary policy. - GE Aerospace, Tesla, American Express, United HealthGroup all to report Q1 results next week. - Intel has soared back up to Dot Com bubble levels, recovering decades long downtrend in a matter of months. - Big Short and Value investor, Michael Burry, has started buying beaten down software name, Salesforce ($CRM) - Avis Budget Car Rental Company ($CAR) has soared over 250% in a matter of weeks, similarly to the GameStop short squeeze in January 2021. - Oil futures prices have dumped 30% to $80/barrel since its peak. This comes after Trump has repeatedly signaled ceasefire talks. - Apple CEO Tim Cook purchased $1.06 million worth of Nike ($NKE) stock at an average price of $42 per share, increasing his personal stake value to $6 million. Nike CEO, Elliot Hill, has also purchased nearly $1 million of its own stock. It is currently down nearly 30% on the year and over 60% from its peak.